2024年4月16日发(作者：)

英语作文 Can You Predict The Future

英语作文：Can You Predict The Future

It’s impossible to know the future. We can guess, but

no one has actual knowledge of what’s going to happen down

the road.

But if you’re someone who trusts her feelings, you’re

more likely to aurately predict future events than people

who don’t trust their feelings as much.

That’s the conclusion of a recent study done by

researchers at Columbia Business School.

Through a series of eight studies they found that

subjects who had a high amount of trust in their feelings

were generally better able to predict things like the outes

of presidential elections, football games, the winner of

American Idol, and even the weather.

How is this possible, you ask?

The best explanation is known as the “privileged

window” hypothesis. The gist is that when we rely on

feelings to make a prediction, we’re really summarizing

and calling on everything we know about the subject in

question. It’s similar to what journalist Malcolm Gladwell

wrote about in his best selling book “Blink” that the

more we know about something the greater our ability to

make snap judgments and predictions without thinking too

much.

Unlike Gladwell’s theory, though, the recent study is

less about snap decisions and more about consciously

deciding to rely on feelings to make predictions. Do that,

and you’re more likely to be able to sense what may happen

in the future.

未来不可预知。我们可以猜想，但是没人能够真正知道未来将

发生什么。

但是如果你相信自己的感觉，你将比那些不相信自己感觉的人

更可能准确预测出未来。

上述结论是哥伦比亚商学院研究人员最近的研究结果。

通过一系列8项研究，研究人员发现那些对自己的感受有着极

高信任度的个体，大局部都能更好预测出总统选举、足球比赛、美

国偶像的获胜者，甚至是天气情况。

你会问了，这怎么可能？

最好解释莫过于“幸运之窗”假说。其中要点就是当我们依赖

我们的'感觉作出预测时，我们事实上在总结和回想我们所知道的，

关于问题的一切信息。这与记者Malcolm Gladwell在他的畅销书

《眨眼之间》中的观点不谋而合，Malcolm Gladwell写到：我们对

某事的了解越多，就越可能迅速判断，不假思索地作出预测。

但是，与Malcolm Gladwell的理论所不同的是，这项研究对于

迅速决策涉及较少，更多的是关于依靠感觉，有意识地作出预测。

凭感觉预测吧，你将更可能知晓未来。