2024年4月8日发(作者：)

Predicting the future is notoriously diff众所周知，预测未来是非常困难的。

Who could have imagined,in the mid 1970s,举个例子吧，在20世纪70年代中叶又有谁能想

computers would be as common in people's 家庭用的计算机会像电视机一样普遍？

In the 1970s,computers were common enough在70年代，计算机已经相当普及了，

but only in big business,government depar但只用在大的公司、政府部门和大的组织之中

These were the so-called mainframe machin它们被称为主机。

Mainframe computers were very large indee计算机主机确实很大，

often occupying whole air-conditioned roo常常占据了装有空调的多间房间，

employing full-time technicians and run o雇用专职的技师，而且得用专门编写的软件才

Though these large machines still exist,虽然这种大计算机仍然存在，

many of their functions have been taken o但是它们的许多功能已被体积小但功能齐全的

In 1975,a primitive machine called the Al1975年，美国推出了一台被称为“牛郎星”的

It can properly be described as the first严格地说起来，它可以被称为第一台“家用电

This was followed,at the end of the 1970s70年代末，在牛郎星之后又出现了一种被称为

In the early 1980s,the computer giant,IBM80年代初，计算机行业的王牌公司美国国际商

This ran on an 'operating system' called 这种电脑采用了一种被称为磁盘操作系统（DO

produced by a then small company named Mi而这种程序是由当时规模不大的微软公司生产

The IBM Personal Computer was widely copiIBM的个人电脑被大规模地模仿。

From those humble beginnings,从那些简陋的初级阶段，

we have seen the development of the user-我们看到了现在都已普及的、使用简便的家用

Considering how recent these developments想一想这些发展的时间多么短，

it is even more remarkable that as long a就更觉得在60年代的英国人莱昂·巴格瑞特有

was able to predict some of the uses of c他预言我们今天知道的计算机的一些用途。

Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers 巴格瑞特根本不接受计算机可以学会自己去“

which people liked to believe in those da而这种想法是当时的人们都愿意相信的。

Bagrit foresaw a time when computers woul巴格瑞特预示有一天计算机可以小到拿在手上

when they would be capable of providing i计算机可以提供有关交通阻塞的信息，并建议

when they would be used in hospitals to h计算机在医院里可以帮助医生诊断病情，计算

All these computer uses have become commo计算机的所有这些功能现在都变得很平常。

Of course,Leon Bagrit could not possibly 当然了，莱昂·巴格瑞特根本没有可能预测到

the worldwide system that enables us to c就是把计算机连结到电话线路上，以便和世界

Nor could he have foreseen how we could t他也无法预测到我们可以利用国际交互网获取

so we can read it on a screen in our home以便在家里的屏幕上阅读，如果愿意的话甚至

Computers have become smaller and smaller计算机已经变得体积越来越小、功能越来越多

This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predicti这就是莱昂·巴格瑞特的预测非凡的地方。

If he,or someone like him,were alive toda如果他或是像他的什么人今天还活着的话，

he might be able to tell us what to expec他大概可以告诉我们下一个50年后会发生什么

My cousin,Harry,keeps a large curiously s我的堂兄哈里在他的书房里一直摆着一只形状

Despite the fact that the bottle is tinte尽管那只瓶子呈淡绿色，

an observant visitor would soon notice th但细心的客人很快就会发现瓶里装的是一种看

If you were to ask Harry what was in the 要是你问哈里瓶里装着什么，

he would tell you that it contained perfu他会告诉你是香水泥。

If you expressed doubt or surprise,如果你表示怀疑或惊奇，

he would immediately invite you to smell 他会立即请你闻一闻，然后取出一些抹在你的

This brief experiment would dispel any fu这一简单的试验会消除你可能存有的一切疑虑

The bottle really does contain perfumed m瓶里装的的确是香水泥。

How Harry came into the possession of thi哈里是如何得到这种稀奇古怪的东西的，这里

Furthermore,the acquisition of this bottl此外，得到这瓶香水泥还治好了他多年的一个

Harry used to consider it a great joke to哈里曾认为走进一家名贵化妆品商店，荒唐地

He would invent fanciful names on the spo他会当场编造出一些稀奇古怪的货名。

On entering a shop,he would ask for a new他走进商店后，会提出要一种名叫“香影”的

If a shop assistant told him she had not 要是女售货员告诉他从未听说过这些东西，

he would pretend to be considerably put o他会装出十分遗憾和不安的样子。

He loved to be told that one of his imagi他爱听售货员说他想像出来的那种东西暂时脱

but of course he never did.当然，他再也不会来了。

How Harry managed to keep a straight face我实在想像不出哈里在这些表演中是怎样装出

Harry does not need to be prompted to exp毋须暗示哈里就会向你讲起他买下那瓶珍贵香

One day,he went to an exclusive shop in L一天，他去伦敦一家高级商店要买一种叫“密

The shop assistant looked puzzled and Har店员露出诧异的神色。哈里又慢慢地、一字一

When the woman shook her head in bewilder那个女售货员还是迷惑不解地摇了摇头。

Harry went on to explain that 'myrolite' 哈里便进一步解释“密诺莱特”是一种质地坚

This explanation evidently conveyed somet他的解释显然对女售货员有些启示，她一个货

She produced all sorts of weird concoctio拿出各种各样稀奇古怪的化妆品，

but none of them met with Harry's require但没有一样能够符合哈里的要求。

When Harry put on his act of being mildly哈里装出不高兴的样子时，

the girl promised to order some for him.女售货员答应为他定货。