2024年6月2日发(作者：)

Are Counterfactual Decisions Relevant for Dynamically

Consistent Updating under Nonexpected Utility?*

不可预期效用下的动态一致性更新与反事实的决定有关吗？

Peter P. Wakker

CentER, Tilburg University, The Netherlands

中心、昆士兰大学,荷兰

December, 1997

1997年十月

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new updating method that preserves dynamic

consistency in nonexpected utility. Given nonseparability of disjoint 解体events, preferences

conditional on an observed

观测的；观察的

event also depend on counterfactual outcomes, i.e.,

outcomes

that would have resulted outside of the conditioning 调节；整修；条件作用event; this point has

been well-understood in the literature. This paper argues that, as a consequence, also

counterfactual

decisions are relevant. A new "strategic" method for updating then follows.

摘要 。这篇论文提出了一种保护不可预期效用下的一致性新的更新方法。考虑到解体事件

的不可分割性，对所观察事件的偏好条件，取决于反事实的结果还是会引起外调节事件的外

部。这一点在文学里有很好的理解。这篇论文认为，作为一种结果也是反事实决策相关的，

一种新的如下战略手段用来更新

KEYWORDS: dynamic consistency, resolute choice, updating.

Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number D81.

Please send editorial communications to:

Peter Wakker

CentER, Tilburg University

P.O. Box 90153, Tilburg 5000 LE, The Netherlands

* This paper benefitted from discussions with Rakesh Sarin and with participants in a conference

on uncertainty in economics, Dept. of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore,

November 1993, and from discussions with Jean-Yves Jaffray and attendents at a seminar on risk,

uncertainty, and decision,

LAFORIA, University of Paris I and VI, France, December 1996.2

关键词:动态一致性、果断抉择,更新。

《经济文献分类号码D81。

请寄给编辑通讯:

彼得 韦克尔

中心、昆士兰大学

邮箱90153号c昆士兰5000,荷兰

本文也从沙林和关于经济学上不确定性的会议上的讨论，经济学部门，美国约翰霍普金斯大

学、巴尔的摩,1993年11月,以及和Jaffray Jean-Yves和参加一个关于危险性、不确定性、

和决定的研讨会的出席者的讨论。

LAFORIA,大学巴黎Ⅰ和VI,法国,1996.2

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper proposes a new updating method for nonexpected utility, called strategic

updating. Strategic updating follows the dynamic decision principles of resolute choice

advocated by McClennen (1988, 1990) and Machina (1989, 1991), in particular it preserves

dynamic consistency. It deviates, however, from the method of resolute updating generally

adopted in the literature and called committed updating in this paper. Under committed

updating, a fixed choice is assumed at counterfactual decision nodes, so that there is no

more counterfactual decision to be taken. Under strategic updating, not only counterfactual

outcomes, but also counterfactual decisions remain relevant.

Let me emphasize that strategic updating does not induce new preference behavior,

different from resolute choice. The main result of this paper, Theorem 5.1, shows that

resolute choice maximizes the strategically updated functional at every decision node of

every tree. That is, strategic updating is fully in line with resolute choice. The claim of this

paper is therefore that the natural way for updating resolute choice is strategic, and not

Committed.

1。介绍

本文提出了一种应对不可预期的效用的更新方法,称为战略更新。战略更新的动态决策原则,

遵循McClennen倡导(1988、1990、)和净化(1989—1991),果断的选择它尤其保护动态的一致

性。然而它背离从果断的更新方法一般在文学中使用在本文中称为承诺更新。在承诺更新下,

一个固定的选择被假定为反事实决策的准则,因此不存在采取更多的反事实的决策。在战略

更新下不仅反事实结果而且反事实的决定仍然是相关的。

让我强调战略更新不会引发新的偏好行为,不同于果断抉择。本论文的主要成果,定理5.1,

显示果断选择最大化战略更新功能在每一个决策节点的每棵树。即战略更新完全符合果断的

选择。这篇论文的声明因此是更新果断选择是一种自然的方式战略的反攻不是忠心承诺。

If strategic updating is considered undesirable, I hope the reader will not hold that against

the analysis of this paper, but will instead question the premise of the analysis, being

resolute choice. In that case, this paper can be interpreted as a negative result for resolute

choice. I hope that this paper, even if interpreted as a criticism of resolute choice,

nevertheless contributes to our understanding of dynamic consistency in nonexpected utility.

The outline of the paper is as follows.

如果战略更新被认为是不良的,我希望读者不会要反对本文的分析,而是质疑果断决策分析

的的前提存在在这种情况下,论文可以解释为阴性结果为果断选择。我希望这篇论文即使编

译成一个批评果断抉择,不过有助于我们了解在不可预期效用下的动态的一致性。

在这篇文章的提纲如下。

Section 2 summarizes the difficulties in applying nonexpected utility to dynamic choice and

updating.

第二部分总结了针对动态选择和更新在不可预期效用下应用的困难。

Section 3 defines resolute choice,

第三节定义了果断抉择,

committed updating, and strategic updating. In the next section, Example 4.1 repeates

principles of revealed preference, in particular "menu independence" (every choice option

has an intrinsic value, independent of competing options). That principle underlies the

concept of utility, and has been generally accepted in preference theories such as consumer

demand theory. Example 4.2 is a special case of Example 4.1. It applies the revealed3

preference principles to updating under resolute choice.