2024年4月23日发(作者：)

祝大家英语学习进步！

经济预测师们普遍预计，2010年将是经济温和增长的一年，增幅约为3%，大大

好于此前两年。

The consensus of economic forecasters expects 2010 to be a year of modest e

conomic growth -- almost 3% -- much better than the previous two years.

但是，这还没有好到将失业率降到衰退前的水平。而失业率一直是经济面临的最

大持续性威胁。

But that's not good enough to bring unemployment -- the greatest continuing t

hreat to the economy -- close to pre-recession levels.

普遍预期在某些方面几乎总是有错误的；问题在于，经济会在哪些方面让我们

出乎意料。这在很大程度上取决于雇主将会招聘多少人。

The consensus is almost always wrong in some respect; the question is in whi

ch respects the economy will surprise us. A lot rides on how much hiring em

ployers do.

以下是其它三大变数。

Here are three of the other big variables.

企业投资即将反弹。会吗？

Business investment is primed to rebound. Will it?

经济衰退对消费者支出的打击引来了企业更严重的下滑。

The pullback from consumers spooked by an economic downturn spurred an ev

en sharper withdrawal by businesses.

经济衰退期间的资本支出降幅超过了大萧条以来的任何时期。

Capital spending tumbled during the recession more than it had at any time si

nce the Great Depression.

这意味着它有足够的空间恢复，如果企业能变得更加自信的话。

That means it has plenty of room to recover, if businesses can grow more con

fident.

企业的资产负债表总体看好。企业利润上升、资本成本下降、生产力表现强劲。

Business balance sheets overall look promising. Corporate profits are up, the c

ost of capital is down and productivity is strong.

企业有充足的资金进行从机械到软件等各方面的投资。

Firms have plenty of funds to finance investments, from machinery to softw

are.

反映企业外部融资额的指标公司资金缺口从今年第二季度的负1,530亿美元变为

第三季度的负1,890亿美元。

The corporate financing gap, a reflection of how much firms must raise extern

ally, hit a negative $189 billion in the third quarter from a negative $153 billi

on in the April-June period.

负的融资缺口意味着企业有内部资金支持它们的资本支出。

A negative financing gap means companies have the funds in house to support

their capital expenditures.

Investment Technology Group Inc.的首席经济学家巴伯拉(Robert Barbera)说，与

美国的家庭状况不同，企业领域处于极好的财务状况中。

'Unlike the household sector, the corporate sector is in excellent fiscal condit

ion,' says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group In

c..

企业创造出的资金远远超过了它们的投资额。

Businesses are wildly generating more money than they're using to invest.

如果消费者支出不出现温和改善，资本支出不可能实现持续反弹。

A sustained rebound in capital expenditures can't occur without a modest im

provement in consumer spending.

但是，在过去1年大幅削减支出后，企业被压抑的需求可能对让经济获得复苏所

需的速度至关重要。

But pent-up demand by businesses, after slashing expenditures sharply in the p

ast year, could prove critical in giving the economy the velocity it needs to re

cover.