2024年3月9日发(作者：)

A global house-price slump is coming

全球房价即将暴跌

It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary

虽然不会摧毁金融体系，但仍然令人恐慌

Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably

for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is

tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous.

过去十年里，拥有一套房就意味着轻松赚钱。房价多年来一直稳步上涨，甚

至在疫情期间还异乎寻常地飙升了。然而现如今，如果你的财富被套牢在房产上，

那你应该感到紧张了。

House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in America are

small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed

Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February.

九个发达经济体的房价都在下跌。到目前为止，美国房价的跌幅还不大，但

最疯狂的市场的房价跌幅已经非常大了。在热衷于共管公寓的加拿大，房价较今

年2月下跌了9%。

As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even

estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09,

it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start

a political storm.

随着通货膨胀和经济衰退的风险在全球范围内蔓延，房价或将迎来一场深度

调整——甚至房地产经纪人也对此感到悲观。尽管这次不会像2007-2009年那样

让全球银行暴雷，但它会加剧衰退，让一些人陷入财务危机，并引发一场政治风

暴。

The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective buyers

have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit 6.92%, over twice

the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002. The pandemic mini-bubble

was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt for more suburban space.

危机的原因是利率飙升：在美国，30年期按揭利率已经攀升至6.92%，比一

年前高出一倍多，是2002年4月以来的最高点，潜在购房者对此惊恐万分，并

一直在观望。降息、经济刺激资金以及对郊区生活空间的追捧，这些因素驱动了

疫情期间的小型泡沫。

Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for example, someone who a year

ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a 30-year mortgage. Back then they

could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000:

33% less.

如今，这一趋势正在逆转。举个例子，假设一年前某人可以负担月供1800

美元的30年期按揭贷款。当时他可以借到42万美元。如今，这笔月供只能贷到

28万美元，少了33%。

From Stockholm to Sydney the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That

makes it harder for new buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze

the finances of existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.

从斯德哥尔摩到悉尼，借款人的购买力正在崩溃。这使得新买家更难买得起

房子，从而抑制了需求，并可能令现有房主承受财务压力，如果运气不好的话，

他们可能还会被迫卖掉房子。

The good news is that falling house prices will not cause an epic financial bust in

America as they did 15 years ago. The country has fewer risky loans and better-

capitalised banks which have not binged on dodgy subprime securities. Uncle Sam now

underwrites or securitises two-thirds of new mortgages.

好消息是，房价下跌不会像15年前那样在美国引发一场史诗般的金融崩溃。

这次美国的高风险贷款较少，银行的资本更充足且不再大量持有危险的次贷证券。

现在，三分之二的新按揭贷款都由美国政府担保或证券化。

The big losers will be taxpayers. Through state insurance schemes they bear the

risk of defaults. As rates rise they are exposed to losses via the Federal Reserve, which

owns one-quarter of mortgage-backed securities.

最大的输家将是纳税人。他们通过国家保险计划承担了违约的风险。美联储

持有四分之一的按揭贷款证券，随着利率的上升，纳税人或因此蒙受损失。

Some other places, such as South Korea and the Nordic countries, have seen

scarier accelerations in borrowing, with household debt of around 100% of GDP. They

could face destabilising losses at their banks or shadow financial firms: Sweden’s

central-bank boss has likened this to “sitting on top of a volcano”.

韩国和北欧等地的借贷增速更加惊人，家庭债务已达到GDP的近100%。这

些国家的银行或影子金融机构可能面临威胁系统稳定性的巨大损失：瑞典央行行

长将其形容为“坐在火山口”。

Even without a synchronised global banking crash, though, the housing downturn

will be grim. First, because gummed-up property markets are a drag on the jobs market.

As rates rise and prices gradually adjust, the uncertainty makes people hesitant about

moving.

然而，就算全球银行业不会同步崩溃，房地产市场的低迷仍然是个严峻的问

题。首先，停滞的房地产市场会拖累就业市场。随着利率上升和价格逐步调整，

这种不确定性会让人们对迁居犹豫不决。

Sales of existing homes in America dropped by 20% in August year on year, and

Zillow, a housing firm, reports 13% fewer new listings than the seasonal norm. In

Canada sales volumes could drop by 40% this year. When people cannot move, it saps

labour markets of dynamism, a big worry when companies are trying to adapt to

worker shortages and the energy crisis.

今年8月美国现房销售量同比下降了20%，房地产公司Zillow的报告显示，

本季新挂牌的房屋数量比往常减少了13%。加拿大今年的现房销售量可能会下降

40%。当人们无法流动时，就会削弱劳动力市场的活力，这在企业努力应对劳动

力短缺和能源危机之际是个巨大的忧患。

And when prices do plunge, homeowners can find their homes are worth less

than their mortgages, making it even harder to up sticks—a problem that afflicted

many economies after the global financial crisis.

当房价下跌时，房主会发现自己房子的价值低于贷款额，这使他们更难迁居

他处——这是一个在全球金融危机后困扰许多经济体的问题。

重难点词汇：

detonate [ˈdɛtnˌeɪt] v. 爆炸；引爆

synchronise [ˈsɪŋkrənaɪz] v. 一致；协调；同时发生